The Breakdown: Who Elected Obama, and Did They Give Him a Mandate?
Which demographic groups Obama won over, how the polls fared, and what Obama's mandate looks like.
Posted 11/04/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Why Not to Pay Attention to Exit-Poll Reporting
Already the numbers flying around are contradicting themselves.
Posted 11/04/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
What Everyone Else Says to Watch Out for in Tonight’s Polling
Our Super-Duper, Ultra-Simple Election-Watching Guide tells you just about everything you need to know going into the grand spectacle tonight, but this race has so transfixed Americans that we thought you might want to see what the other bloggers will be looking out for.
Posted 11/03/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
The Polls: Where We’re at Right Now
Not that this will predict tomorrow's results with any sort of accuracy, but here's how people are saying they'll vote, according to some dudes who interrupt them at home with unwanted phone calls.
Posted 10/29/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Look Out! Possible Obama Landslide
Pundits and pollsters keep wondering if the race is tightening. What’s actually happening is that the prospects for a Democratic landslide are growing.
Posted 10/28/08 in Daily Intel
Instant Politics
Matt Bai and Nate Silver Explain Why the Rays Have Better Odds Than McCain
'New York Times Magazine' writer Matt Bai and FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver discuss the viability of McCain's Pennsylvania-based strategy, the voters assuming we're still stuck in the 2000/2004 universe, and Silver's defense of his model should the election turn to McCain.
Posted 10/27/08 in Daily Intel
Instant Politics
Nate Silver and Jonathan Chait on Early Voting and the Latest Sarah Palin Rumor
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver and 'The New Republic' columnist Jonathan Chait discuss the latest Sarah Palin 2012 rumor, how much the African-American vote will matter, and why you should never underestimate the Republican base.
Posted 10/15/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
The Final Debate: McCain Needs a Miracle
McCain must create a game-changing moment without being negative; Obama just has to stand there. Who would you rather be?
Posted 10/09/08 in Daily Intel
Twenty-Person Poll
What New Yorkers Are Thinking About the Greatest Depression: It Won’t Be Too Bad!
We talked to twenty strangers in Union Square to see how they felt the economy was going to affect them. They were optimistic! (And CUTE.)
Posted 10/07/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Obama Making Serious Battleground Gains Over McCain
A slew of reports out today show Obama gaining in national and swing-state polls.
Posted 10/02/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
How Palin, McCain’s Kryptonite, Could Still Take the Debate
Palin has been driving independent and moderate voters in key battleground states away from John McCain, and that fact is going to frame how she debates Joe Biden on Thursday night.
Posted 09/15/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Could McCain Topple the Empire State?
Poll numbers show Obama's lead in our true-blue state is down to just five points.
Posted 09/10/08 in Daily Intel
Instant Politics
Kurt Andersen and Markos Moulitsas on Barack Obama’s Big Disadvantage and the Future of the GOP
'New York' columnist Kurt Andersen and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas discuss concocted gaffes, Sarah Palin's historical significance to the Republican Party, and whether there's any way to know which way the race will go.
Posted 08/21/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
The Insider’s Guide to Election Polls
Don't believe the pundits! Why that five-point lead for McCain doesn't mean much, the Verizon Effect could be crucial, and you should ignore the exit polls on November 4.
Posted 08/20/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Voters Souring on Obama As Never Before
His momentum has vanished, the race has drawn to a dead heat, and Republicans are, maybe for the first time, showing some real optimism.
Posted 08/05/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Sky Falling on Obama
Until the next swing in the polls, here's why Obama's candidacy is fundamentally flawed.
Posted 07/11/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Obama’s Plan for a Big Win — and His Greatest Weakness
Barack Obama’s pledge to run a 50-state race was no feint; he appears to have meant it when he said he wanted to build a broad governing coalition.
Posted 06/25/08 in Daily Intel
Early and Often
Apparently, Obama Really Does Have an Enormous Lead
One poll, that’s nothing, don't waste our time with that garbage. But two polls — that’s a horse of a completely different color.
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